The Oxford English Dictionary defines 'challenge' as the “move from one system or situation to another”. It is a word Toby Corballis, CEO of Rapid Addition, believes, all too easily describes the financial turmoil of the past six months. With a particular focus on EMEA, Corballis examines these challenges and the associate risks facing firms and software vendors across the financial marketplace over the coming 12 months.
Given the continuing volatility of global markets, large-scale movement of people, data and systems, challenge looks set to be the order of the day. Or, in the words of Robert Zimmerman, 'The Times They Are A-Changing', in the world of electronic trading, like many others, 'movement begets change and change begets risks'. Over the following year, the industry looks set to face a series of challenges, change and risk.
Change #1: Consolidation of software
With apologies to any egg-sucking grannies, once upon a time, to attract order flow, the sell-side gave away various software packages to the buy-side. It was the same kind of logic applied by proponents of the ubiquitous loyalty card, and buy-side firms saved money, as they didn't have to pay for their software upfront. Actually, costs were partially hidden in sellside fees and partially realised through the inconvenience of having to use a multitude of different solutions that did more-or-less the same thing but connected to different counterparties.
This may seem trivial, but it represents a seismic shift in the way systems make it to market. Money for these systems will no-longer flow from the sell-side to the software vendors. The relationship is now owned by the buy-side. No one wants to pay for something that used to be free, so it's unsurprising that there are mutterings in the corridors. Expect this crescendo to peak as many existing 'free' contracts expire, creating a drive to consolidate on as few solutions as possible. This consolidation carries a number of risks to all sides of the financial Rubik cube.
Buying software requires an understanding of the software procurement process, a process that is itself currently the subject of change. Questions like, “how long has the vendor been trading?” are likely to matter less than “who is the ultimate parent?” and “how solvent are they?”. Ownership is likely to say much about the chances of software being able to support your requirements later on. Where safety in numbers was once seen as good (vendors had more clients so less chance of going under), it doesn’t work so well if you’re in a long queue of creditors to a failed business.
Knowing who the ultimate parent of a company is gives other insights. Do the company's principals really understand my industry (they need to if you want some assurance that your system will change to keep up with the times)? Do they have a reputation for innovation? What is their commitment to Research & Development?
Change #2: Increased regulation as a by-product of political oratory
Politicians love to claim credit, deflect blame, and be perceived as tough guys. A quick scan of the local media is enough to see that the current political culture is very much one of blame. Fallout from political rhetoric tends to materialise in legislation which almost always beats the drum for “greater transparency and accountability”. What is actually meant, of course, is greater auditability, or the ability to recreate a moment in time so as to prove that the course of action taken was fair and in the best interest of the client. This is all good and there are many ways to achieve it, however it would be hard to argue that computer records were anything other than the most accessible of these.
Imagine trying to model all of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) contracts into which Lehman’s entered. One problem is that a CDS could be created in so many ways: phone, instant messenger, and so on. Finding and recreating all of these would be a nightmare. That there is an appetite by the regulators for things to be more auditable is evident in recent speeches by Charlie McCreevy, the European Commissioner, who has been looking to introduce legislation to create more on-exchange trading of CDS trades.
If more assets are traded on-exchange that implies that more software connections are required to connect venues with participants. That, in turn, implies more trading platforms and more capacity to handle increased transactional volumes by the participants.